UPDATE2: Oregon victory by 80,000? (only an extrapolation!)

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Wednesday November 05, 2008 · 11:04 AM PST

2008/11/05 · 11:04

DIARY UPDATED

Thanks to commentors, I made a big booboo and omitted Multnomah County. Sorry!

According to my little spreadsheet, the Oregon Senate race should continue to close as more results come in. Because most outstanding votes are in Democrat-favored areas, I now extrapolate that we'll win Oregon by about 80,000 votes.

As my source data, I've used CNN's numbers: http://edition.cnn.com/...

I've done an extrapolation for the counties in the Oregon. Basically, I've looked at the size of the democratic and republican votes and the percentage of precincts counted. My assumptions are that the population sizes of the remaining precincts is the same, and that the voting ratios of dems to republicans are the same for the unreported precincts of each county.

UPDATE 2: Given the discussion below, I've become rightly confused. I'm tired and have to go home to sleep (I'm in Scotland), so this little goofball of a diary will stay as is unfortunately. I would consider deleting it but the following discussion may be valuable.

Spreadsheet available below the fold.

MediaRevolution

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Monday April 23, 2007 · 2:28 PM PDT

2007/04/23 · 14:28

This is speculation, but we may wish to consider whether the bizarre and violent behavior of the Virginia Tech killer was induced in part by an antidepressant.

From the Mother Jones blog:

The Times reported that Cho Seung-Hui was taking a psychoactive medication. Was it an antidepressant? No doubt antidepressants save many lives, but they also cause side effects. Psychiatrists know that in a percentage of patients, they trigger mania, exacerbate delusional thinking, and agitate suicidal ideation.

MediaRevolution

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Wednesday November 08, 2006 · 1:18 AM PST

2006/11/08 · 01:18

I extrapolated data from CNN's Montana data and the Montana Secretary of State page, plus this info about Yellowstone County.

Projection:

Tester (D) 168,500
Burns (R) 165,100

Meaning Tester would win it by 3,400 votes.

Details below the fold. Read More

Nevada Vote Machine Fuck-ups: Lawsuit Filed

MediaRevolution

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Tuesday October 31, 2006 · 2:41 PM PST

2006/10/31 · 14:41

I was in Nevada a few years ago and we counted it a victory when a public hearing convinced the state to get machines with a paper trail. However, it seems there are problems. I just received a press-release from a Reno activist who is suing Sequoia Voting Systems.

Here's a key quote:

Axelrod discovered her missing 2004 vote by review of her voting record on Washoe Registrar's DEMS (Diebold Election Management System). Accessing the DEMS computer she found her vote had neither been registered nor counted and that she had been issued 3 - rather than one unique Voter ID number.

The whole press release is below. Read More

TORTURE: 500 detainees in 20 Afghani Abu Ghraibs

MediaRevolution

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Friday October 06, 2006 · 7:22 AM PDT

2006/10/06 · 07:22

I just discovered New American Media. They have a story up called Afghanistan -- Hub for Secret U.S. Torture Centers:

[T]he U.S. military has created an extensive network of detention centers dedicated to holding hundreds of captured Afghans, mostly suspected Taliban backers. The United Nations is barred from these jails, as are human rights activists, journalists, and even the Afghan government. And in the absence of outside scrutiny, it seems, terrible things are happening to Afghan citizens -- men who've emerged from these jails say they've experienced the sort of horrors now synonymous with Abu Ghraib.

MediaRevolution

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Friday August 11, 2006 · 9:53 PM PDT

2006/08/11 · 21:53

From an AP article in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer:

While the British terror suspects were hatching their plot, the Bush administration was quietly seeking permission to divert $6 million that was supposed to be spent this year developing new homeland explosives detection technology.

MediaRevolution

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Thursday March 31, 2005 · 4:51 AM PST

2005/03/31 · 04:51

Hello lovely dailykos people. After another long night last night, I realized that it is finally time to call it quits. I was "jacked in" from 10pm to about 4:30am. Believe it or not, this was a comparatively short internet binge for me. This cannot go on; it's killing me. I will no longer be a part of the dialogue here.

I want to say two things. First, you people are amazing; keep it up. This community serves several much-needed functions: news gathering and dissemination, community making, and organization. And now, I am jubilant to see, actual journalism. Protect this community, nurture it, keep it vital, extend it.

Second, and more pointedly, take a moment to critically consider the amount of time you spend here at dkos, and online in general. Internet addiction is a very real and serious problem. Read More

The Most Dangerous Game: US - China Monetary Wars

MediaRevolution

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Wednesday February 23, 2005 · 8:19 PM PST

2005/02/23 · 20:19

The defining feature of the global economy right now is the $660 billion US current account deficit...

The defining feature of the current international financial and monetary system is that it finances the United States' enormous external deficit...

--Roubini & Setser (big pdf!) link from Billmon

The lion's share has been paid for by China, which has purchased a staggering amount of dollars to keep their currency cheap and sales brisk. There is momentary stability here, but it can only last for so long. Some say 2 decades, others say 2 years.

Will China and the other Asian nations keep financing us? Will they force us to get fiscal responsiblity? Or will we go down the path of Mutually Assured Financial Destruction?

The United States and China are playing a dangerous game of prisoner's dilemma: stay on the boat and risk getting screwed by your companion, or jump off now, but risk immediate negative consequences for everyone. [More, with poll...] Read More

Debunking Snopes on Aspartame Safety

MediaRevolution

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Wednesday February 09, 2005 · 7:05 PM PST

2005/02/09 · 19:05

Some people think Aspartame (aka Nutrasweet) causes serious health problems. I just did a whack of research about this tasty substance, which Donald Rumsfeld once saved after the FDA tried to nix it.

I think there's reason to say you might want to avoid ingesting lots of the stuff, especially if you're pregnant.

Specifically, its approval was done in a very shady and political manner, way back in the Reagan era. Also, it is claimed that almost all of the research that wasn't funded by industry found indications of health problems.
Read More

Climate Change killed 160,000 in 2004

MediaRevolution

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Tuesday February 01, 2005 · 5:58 AM PST

2005/02/01 · 05:58

The Kyoto Protocol goes into effect on Feb 16, no thanks to the USA or Australia. The "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change" conference starts tonight in the UK. So far, only a handful of Australian papers (like this one)have reported a stunning estimate of climate change casualties:

According to a World Health Organisation report to be presented at the UK conference, a 2C rise in average global temperatures could put between two and three billion people at risk of water shortages and disease.

The same paper, which was co-authored by Australian National University scientist Professor Tony McMichael, found more than 160,000 people died last year as a result of climate change since the mid-1970s.

MediaRevolution

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Saturday December 18, 2004 · 10:24 AM PST

2004/12/18 · 10:24

Whereas we value daily Kos as a community of friends and allies,

Whereas we are all human here,

Whereas it seems that too much sniping and anger and personalization is going on,

Whereas this is harmful to our forum and our group,

Whereas it is causing feelings of hurt and animosity,

Whereas it is wasting a lot of time and energy,

Whereas most people who are attacking others are, by in large, acting out of good intentions, but are overcome by emotion and are being hysterical.

Whereas there most probably are some agent provocatuers on this site.

AND

Whereas changing this tone cannot be solved by mandate or screaming, but ultimately only by individual action and efforts,

I hereby resolve to try the following ... Read More

FOIA Lawsuit Filed Against CIA for Witholding Iraq Report

MediaRevolution

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Thursday October 21, 2004 · 9:49 AM PDT

2004/10/21 · 09:49

The National Security Archive at George Washington University is suing the Central Intelligence Agency. They want an expedited release of the damning report that the Bush administration is repressing.

Washington, D.C., 20 October 2004 - The National Security Archive today filed suit against the Central Intelligence Agency ("CIA") seeking the expedited processing and release under the Freedom of Information Act ("FOIA") of the 2004 Iraq National Intelligence Estimate ("NIE). As the New York Times reported on September 16, 2004, the NIE spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq. The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst case being developments that could lead to civil war.
The Archive is seeking judicial intervention to require the CIA to expedite its processing of a FOIA request for the NIE. "This is a textbook case for expedited processing," said the Archive's General Counsel, Meredith Fuchs. "There is a tremendous public interest in the situation in Iraq and the U.S. commitment to Iraq, the news media have focused significant attention on the NIE, and members of the Senate Intelligence Committee have requested that the NIE be made public to help with the formulation of policy."

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UPDATE2: Oregon victory by 80,000? (only an extrapolation!)

Was Seung Hui Cho a "Prozac Killer"?

PROJECTION: Tester wins MT by 3,400 votes

Nevada Vote Machine Fuck-ups: Lawsuit Filed

TORTURE: 500 detainees in 20 Afghani Abu Ghraibs

Bushies tried to divert $$ from airport explosives detection

Fed up with internet addiction, I'm retiring

The Most Dangerous Game: US - China Monetary Wars

Debunking Snopes on Aspartame Safety

Climate Change killed 160,000 in 2004

The dKos Be Human Pledge

FOIA Lawsuit Filed Against CIA for Witholding Iraq Report